Perspective 1. Despite fears voiced by some, markets continue to be resilient. The war in Iran, oil prices approaching $100 per barrel, and increased layoffs in big tech companies can all induce fear. Other voiced fears include capital expenses with AI companies, smaller than expected GDP numbers, increased inflation fears are resurfacing, lowering interest rates may be on hold, and the list goes on.
Perspective 2. As of this writing on March 25th, 2026, the markets as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and The Russell 2000 have yet to reach correction territory. However, and in fact, the Dow is only down -4.04% year to date and down -7.49% from the high of February 2nd, 2026. The S&P 500 is down -3.88% YTD and from the high on January 27th it is down -5.53%. The NASDAQ is down only -5.62% YTD and from its
high on the same day -8.08%. And lastly, while the Russell had the worst performance it is up +1.13% YTD and down -6.68% from the high of January 21st, 2026.
Perspective 3. Despite these fears, the markets are not overreacting. The drop in price may be as simple as profit taking, which is creating better valuations. We have been expecting a pullback in pricing and war has provided an excuse. At the same time, markets are and have seemed to be forward looking. If this is the case, we should get a strong rebound with any positive news about the war and the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Perspective 4. If the war in Iran is resolved quickly, we can expect the price of oil to drop back to the $60 range, expect inflation to moderate itself again, and the markets to rally. This could be a strong buying opportunity. Similar to April of last year when the markets bottomed out April 3rd, 2025, and never really looked back.
Perspective 5. I believe the war will be short lived, I believe the corporate earnings will be strong, I believe AI will increase productivity, and I believe the future to be bright and worth investing in. That said, caution is always wise. Cash on the sidelines should be invested slowly with or when we see pullbacks.
As always, if you have questions concerning how today’s headlines may affect your personal investments please reach out. We are here to help.
All my best,
Tim Vorpahl
President.
Vorpahl Wing Securities, Inc.